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A Possible El Niño in 2026: What It Could Mean for the Indian Monsoon

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Every year, the Indian monsoon is watched closely—not only by meteorologists, but by farmers, water managers, disaster agencies, businesses, and millions of ordinary citizens. The southwest monsoon provides nearly 70–80% of India’s annual rainfall (Figure 1) and supports agriculture, water resources, energy production, and livelihoods. This year, growing discussions around the possible development of an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean have raised an important question: Will El Niño affect India’s monsoon in 2026? Figure 1: Average monsoon season (June-September) rainfall (left panel) and Percentage of annual rainfall during monsoon season (right panel) The short answer is: possibly, but not always in a straightforward way. To understand what may happen, it is useful to look at the science behind El Niño, its historical relationship with the Indian monsoon, and why modern forecasting is more nuanced than simple cause-and-effect. What is El Niño? The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is...

Climate Change, Impacts and Climate Services: Role of Teachers in Climate Education

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Teachers play a particularly important role in this effort. As educators and mentors, they have the unique opportunity to shape the understanding, attitudes, and actions of future generations. Strengthening teachers' knowledge of weather, climate, climate services, and climate change can therefore contribute significantly to building climate-resilient communities. This article is based on a lecture note prepared for a session on “Climate Services, Community Awareness and the Role of Teachers” delivered during the 1st Training on Weather, Environment and Climate in School Education (WISE) for school teachers held at Savitribai Phule Pune University (SPPU), Pune. The enthusiastic participation and insightful interactions with the teachers during the programme highlighted the importance of integrating climate education into school curricula and fostering a culture of environmental stewardship. The lecture note provides a simple introduction to climate change, its impacts, climate ser...

Operational Heatwave Products and Services of India Meteorological Department

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Introduction Heatwaves are among the most significant weather-related hazards affecting India. They pose serious risks to human health, agriculture, water resources, energy demand, and infrastructure. The impacts are particularly severe in densely populated urban areas, among outdoor workers, elderly people, children, and vulnerable communities. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, serves as the national authority for monitoring, forecasting, and issuing warnings related to heatwave conditions across the country. Through its extensive observational network, numerical weather prediction systems, and impact-based forecasting framework, IMD provides timely early warnings that support preparedness and response actions by disaster management agencies, health authorities, and other stakeholders. This article provides an overview of heatwave definitions, monitoring methodologies, forecasting systems, and operational heatwave products issued by IMD. ...

Climate Applications and User Interface Approaches in Agricultural Meteorology: Operational Perspectives from IMD

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Climate information is increasingly becoming an essential component of agricultural planning and risk management. Advances in observations, forecasting systems, remote sensing, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have significantly enhanced our ability to monitor, predict, and communicate weather and climate risks relevant to agriculture. However, the true value of climate information lies not only in its scientific accuracy but also in its effective translation into actionable insights for farmers, extension agencies, researchers, and policy makers. This lecture note is based on my invited lecture titled “Climate Applications and User Interface Approaches in Agricultural Meteorology” delivered during the National Training Programme on Application of Remote Sensing and GIS in Agricultural Meteorology organized by the Centre for Advanced Faculty Training (CAFT) in Agricultural Meteorology, College of Agriculture, Pune. The lecture focused on how climate information can be transfo...