A Possible El Niño in 2026: What It Could Mean for the Indian Monsoon
Every year, the Indian monsoon is watched closely—not only by meteorologists, but by farmers, water managers, disaster agencies, businesses, and millions of ordinary citizens. The southwest monsoon provides nearly 70–80% of India’s annual rainfall (Figure 1) and supports agriculture, water resources, energy production, and livelihoods. This year, growing discussions around the possible development of an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean have raised an important question: Will El Niño affect India’s monsoon in 2026? Figure 1: Average monsoon season (June-September) rainfall (left panel) and Percentage of annual rainfall during monsoon season (right panel) The short answer is: possibly, but not always in a straightforward way. To understand what may happen, it is useful to look at the science behind El Niño, its historical relationship with the Indian monsoon, and why modern forecasting is more nuanced than simple cause-and-effect. What is El Niño? The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is...