Understanding Heavy Rainfall Events in India During El Niño Years
Introduction When people hear that El Niño is expected to weaken the Indian summer monsoon , they often assume that rainfall will remain uniformly low throughout the season. This is one of the most common misconceptions about the monsoon. Seasonal rainfall and daily rainfall extremes are not the same thing. A season can end with below-normal total rainfall , yet still witness episodes of extremely heavy rainfall over localized regions. Unfortunately, these short-lived but intense rainfall events are often the ones responsible for floods, landslides, urban inundation, and significant loss of life and property. "El Niño influences the seasonal total rainfall over India, not every individual rainfall event. Therefore, even in an El Niño year with below-normal seasonal rainfall, some regions can still experience episodes of extremely heavy rainfall capable of causing severe floods and landslides." The widespread heavy rainfall observed across India during the past few...