Climate of India

The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon has begun over India. On 19 September 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan, marking the beginning of the seasonal retreat of the monsoon. The arrival of the southwest monsoon is one of the most closely watched weather events in India. But its departure is equally important. The withdrawal of the monsoon marks a major transition in India's atmospheric circulation, gradually bringing an end to the southwest monsoon season and preparing the atmosphere for the post-monsoon season. But how does the India Meteorological Department determine that the southwest monsoon has started withdrawing? IMD uses a set of meteorological and synoptic criteria to identify the beginning of withdrawal and then monitors its progressive retreat across the country. With the southwest monsoon beginning its withdrawal in 2026, this is a good opportunity to understand how mons...

The Southwest Monsoon 2026 commenced over Kerala on 4 June , slightly later than its normal onset date of 1 June. Thereafter, the monsoon advanced across the country and covered the entire country by 9 July . a) Rainfall during June–August 2026 The country experienced a deficient June, followed by a near-normal July and another deficient August. June: 106.8 mm against a normal of 165.3 mm — 35.4% below normal July: 283.3 mm against a normal of 280.5 mm — 1.0% above normal August: 213.5 mm against a normal of 254.9 mm — 16.3% below normal Consequently, cumulative rainfall during 1 June–31 August 2026 was 603.7 mm, compared with the normal of 700.7 mm, giving an overall deficiency of 13.8%. Thus, despite a substantial recovery during July, the rainfall deficit accumulated during June could not be completely compensated, and rainfall again remained below normal during August. Region   June 2026      July 2026       August 2026   ...

By the end of July, nearly half of India's southwest monsoon season (June–September) has been completed. This provides an opportunity to review the progress of the monsoon and understand what may happen during the remaining months (August–September). 1. Monsoon onset and advance The southwest monsoon onset over Kerala occurred on 4 June 2026, about three days later than the normal onset date of 1 June. Following its onset, the monsoon advanced steadily across the country, with periods of rapid progress interspersed with temporary pauses. It eventually covered the entire country on 9 July 2026, about six days earlier than the normal date of 15 July. It is important to note that the timing of monsoon onset or its rate of advance does not determine the seasonal rainfall over India. The seasonal rainfall depends on the evolution of large-scale climate drivers such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), intraseasonal oscillations such as the Madden–...

Introduction When people hear that El Niño is expected to weaken the Indian summer monsoon , they often assume that rainfall will remain uniformly low throughout the season. This is one of the most common misconceptions about the monsoon. Seasonal rainfall and daily rainfall extremes are not the same thing. A season can end with below-normal total rainfall , yet still witness episodes of extremely heavy rainfall over localized regions. Unfortunately, these short-lived but intense rainfall events are often the ones responsible for floods, landslides, urban inundation, and significant loss of life and property.       "El Niño influences the seasonal total rainfall over India, not every individual rainfall event. Therefore, even in an El Niño year with below-normal seasonal rainfall, some regions can still experience episodes of extremely heavy rainfall capable of causing severe floods and landslides." The widespread heavy rainfall observed across India during the past few...