Posts

Possible 2026 El Niño and the Indian Monsoon: What to Expect and Why It Matters

Image
Every year, the Indian monsoon is watched closely—not only by meteorologists, but by farmers, water managers, disaster agencies, businesses, and millions of ordinary citizens. The southwest monsoon provides nearly 70–80% of India’s annual rainfall (Figure 1) and supports agriculture, water resources, energy production, and livelihoods. This year, growing discussions around the possible development of an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean have raised an important question: Will El Niño affect India’s monsoon in 2026? Figure 1: Average monsoon season (June-September) rainfall (left panel) and Percentage of annual rainfall during monsoon season (right panel) The short answer is: possibly, but not always in a straightforward way. To understand what may happen, it is useful to look at the science behind El Niño, its historical relationship with the Indian monsoon, and why modern forecasting is more nuanced than simple cause-and-effect. What is El Niño? The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is...
Post a Comment
Read more

2023 Cold Wave Conditions in India

Image
2023 Cold Wave Conditions in India Many parts of India are currently experiencing cold wave conditions around 7 -8 January 2023. Severe cold wave with dense fog observed in the states like Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh. The IMD had issued a red warning (meaning 'take action') over many regions in northwest and north India. Figure: Observed (top panel) maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and mean temperature and the  anomaly (bottom panel) of  over India during 7 - 8 January 2023 *Based on Realtime Data [Source: IMD] Figure: Observed minimum temperature  anomaly of  over India during 5 - 12 January 2023 *Based on Realtime Data [Source: IMD] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The criteria adopted by IMD to define Cold Wave is given below:  (A) Cold Wave Cold Wave conditions for plains or hilly regions Cold Wave is considered when the minimum temperature of a station is 10 C or l...
Post a Comment
Read more

2022 annual statement on climate of India by IMD

Image
2022 annual statement on climate of India by IMD The annual mean temperature of India for the year 2022 was the fifth warmest year on record since 1901. The other four warmest years on record, in descending order, were 2016, 2009, 2017, and 2010. The pre-monsoon (March–May) period was exceptionally hot in 2022, and many parts of the country experienced severe heatwave conditions during this season. The image shows the all-India mean temperature anomaly for the years 1901–2022 with respect to the 1981–2010 climatology. There were several significant extreme weather events that occurred in India during 2022. India might be a unique country that experiences a variety of extreme weather events in a calendar year, from heatwaves to coldwaves; dust storms to snowfall; and from lightning/thunderstorms to heavy rainfall events/floods to cyclonic storms, etc. Furthermore, extreme events occurred across India from north to south and east to west. India experienced many extreme weather events in...
Post a Comment
Read more

Observed temperature of India for December 2022

Image
The India Meteorological Department released the December 2022 monthly climate summary. As per the report, the all-India mean temperature for December 2022 is the highest on record (21.49 ºC) since 1901. Similarly, the average maximum temperature for December 2022 is the second highest (27.32 ºC) after the year 2016 (27.75 ºC) while the average minimum temperature is also the second highest (15.65 ºC) after the year 2008 (15.69 ºC) since records began in 1901 (Table 1). The all-India spatial patterns of maximum, minimum and mean temperature for December 2022 is given in Figure 1. Coincidently, all three years (2008, 2016 and 2022) happened to be La Nina years (Figure 2) with December Nino3.4 index values of -0.90 ºC, -0.51ºC and -0.90 ºC respectively. Table 1: The observed temperatures during December 2022 for all India and four homogeneous regions with its ranks since 1901. Values are rounded off to nearest two decimal. [Source: IMD] Figure 1: Observed spatial tempe...
Post a Comment
Read more

Observed climate of India: Post-monsoon season | Northeast monsoon season | October - December 2022

Image
As the year 2022 has come to an end, a season from October to December, known as the post-monsoon season for India or the northeast monsoon season over south-peninsula India, also have come to an end. South Peninsular India, consisting of five meteorological subdivisions (Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and South Interior Karnataka), receives about 30% of its annual rainfall during the Northeast monsoon season. The re-establishment of northeasterly trade-wind regime associated with the southward movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) ushers-in the northeast monsoon, bringing much needed rainfall to the southern parts of India. However, the predictability of northeast monsoon is limited to some extent due to the strong day to day atmospheric variability caused by the passage of the synoptic scale weather systems such as easterly waves, lows, depressions, cyclones etc. The seasonal predictability of the northeast monsoon ov...
Post a Comment
Read more